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DeanSTrader Prep for 3/14/13

AAPL: 

W2W4 (What to Watch for):

  1. An extension > 3.09 below open price (bearish)
  2. An extension > 1.21 below first 3 minute candle low (bearish).
  3. A 15 minute candle close > $1.00 above first 15 minute close (bullish).
  4. 3 minute candles vol < 100K to signal low volatility (sideways action).
  5. If low volume selling show’s signs of progression.
  6. Inability to move > 1.01 above yesterday’s close to signal lower move until it does it.
  7. ability pull-backs that are < 2.78 – 2.84 to signal further upside as those were the pull-backs during today’s session when AAPL extended higher and once we had a pull-back that was > 2.84 we saw a bearish move down about 2 – 3 points.
  8. Again using the prep for 3/13/13 we depicted that when AAPL was successful on its move lower, it had bounces that were between 1.50 – 1.70. Well that proved to be sound analysis today as when AAPL advanced > 1.70 on a bounce it started its bullish move on the day with most of the momentum beginning at that very key point. Likewise, during the move lower that took place from about 13:48 or so to the close, the bounces were < 1.50 – 1.70. In fact to be exact the bounce that took place between 15:09 to 15:21 was 1.45. (MARK THAT) 

L2W4 (Levels to Watch for):

  1. 429.65 – 430.32 as a resistance level, as it proved to be resist levels during the move down today. Also keep in mind this area is the MP (Midpoint of the week) which proved to be the MP of today (429.93).
  2. Another level to watch for is 427.57 (yesterday’s low) – 428.20’s as a support level.
  3. The next level is 425 – 425.50 as a key support level since today it attempted to break below 425 only to have a lod @ 425.36, while yesterday’s low was 425.14.
  4. As for another resist. level to watch in case of a move higher would be 432.50. Beyond that and 435 becomes the resist. that has to be broken as today it it’s failure signaled hod.

SCENARIOS:

Bullish Scenario: ability to move > 1.20 above 428.45 w/ a breakout > 430 and holds > 429 by 9:45 A.M. to signal a move higher. If AAPL’s 15 minute close @ 10:00 is $1 > then the initial 15 minute close, then it targets 432.50 – 435. A break above 435 has to take place to signal a bounce play to 440’s.

Neutral Scenario: inability to either break below 425 or above 430 by 10:00 which will result in a range between 427 – 432.50 for the rest of the day (similar to today’s action) unless AAPL either breaks above 432.50 w/3MVP > 100K to signal move higher or breaks < 425 w/3MVP > 100K on to signal lower move.

Bearish Scenario: ability to avoid going $1.20 > today’s close of 428.45 and a break < 425 w/3MVP > 100K by 9:45 which if show’s progression lower w/bounces that are < 1.50 – 1.70 will target a move to 420. An exception to the avoidance of going > $1.20 is if it attempts to break above 429.50 – 430 but fails and yet still manages to break below 425 w/3MVP > 100K by 10:00.

Gap Up: ability to extend $1 > open price without extending more than $1.21 < first 3 minute low by 9:45 signals a bullish move which if closes $1 > 15 minute close on a 15 minute candle signals a move to 432.50 – 435. On the flipside, a gap-up which fails to extend $1 > open price and an extension > $1.21 first 3 minute low signals a bearish move.

Gap Down: inability to extend $1 > open price and an extension > $1.21 below first 3 minute low w/3MVP > 100K to signal a bearish move… below 425 by 9:45 and it targets 420 as long as bounces are not > 1.50 – 1.70 along the way. However, if it gaps down and fails to move > $1.21 below first 3 minute low and extends $1 > open price it signals a bullish move.

Gut Feeling: I see it gapping down again and failing to move $1.20 > yesterday’s close with an extension > $1.21 below first 3 minute low and a break below 425.

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