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AAPL, TSLA, SPY – Stockhaven’s Watchlist For 5/24/13

stockhaven — Thu, 23 May 2013 20:22:33 +0000

SPY: While SPY did end well off the lows on Thursday it still displayed cracks that hadn’t shown up during the rally off the mid April lows, mainly 2 lower lows in a row and 2 red days in a row. Furthermore, SPY went below its previous hours low for the first time since the rally began. While my short trade is based on SPY I prefer to watch the S&P500 for my reference point. I’m focused on SPX 1,650. That’s a nice round number that I feel has psychological implications. If SPX breaks and stays below it at Friday’s open then I’d expect a move towards 1,640 which would translate to low $164′s in SPY. The main trigger for a short trade on SPY is if it can break below its initial 3 min low and 6 min lows by 9:45-9:50. If that can’t happen then I would expect upside or a generally neutral day.

Click here for the rest of my watchlist for tomorrow.

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Markets Trip – Why You Shouldn’t Buy The Dip

stockhaven — Thu, 23 May 2013 18:30:39 +0000

Around midday yesterday the markets were putting in fresh all time highs, by the end of the day they were at their lows for the week. What happened? Red flags showed up. I’m not going to talk about the headline catalyst, which anyone will argue was the FOMC minutes, I prefer to focus on the what behind the price action. 2 main contributors from a price perspective led to yesterday’s sell off and today’s follow thru gap lower:

Russell 2000 failed to hold above 1,000
SPY went below the previous days low

SPY broke below $166.50 (Tuesday’s low) yesterday around 2:00, marking the second day in a row that it went below the previous days low. That was the first time that had happened since the April 19th rally off 1,536 began. The result? SPY went on to suffer a near 1% drop of $1.33 to Wednesday low of $165.17 before closing at $165.93. Then today saw follow downside thru and more red flags show up.

SPY opened below the previous days low today for the first time since this rally began. Moreover, barring a red to green close on the day, SPY is going to suffer its first 2 day losing streak since the rally began as well. Yes the market is well off of the lows today, showing that a number of market players are still ready to ‘buy the dip,’ but the signs that I see do not suggest buying in just yet. The buy the dip traders you see now are the ones who are only paying attention to the success the buy the dip strategy has had this year, but not to its details. This dip is deviating greatly from the trend of the recent month, so I recommend being patient and possibly even going short.

Another distinction between these last 2 days when compared with the last pullback that occurred in April is in terms of volume. In April, SPY volume on the 2 major down days was over 200 million shares. Those were 2 of the 4 highest volume days of the year (prior to yesterday, now they are 2 of the 5). That is significant because even though volume was high to the downside, it showed a lot of supply was coming out of the market and being absorbed by new demand. While yesterday’s volume of 240 million shares lines up with that same thesis, today’s volume does not. What taking the trading volume from today in SPY with what I said in the paragraphs above, I believe the S&P500 is set up to break below today’s low of 1,635 and test support between 1,600-1,620.

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How To Identify Red Flags

stockhaven — Wed, 22 May 2013 16:30:08 +0000

Seems like every other day, if not every day, a new all time high is being made. In fact, today is day 14 above 1,600, 12 of those days have seen SPX make a new all time high. The most important development today to me is the Russell 2000 extending above 1,000. The Russell printed above 1,000 in each of the last 2 days but today was the first day that it was able to show some real extension as it moved to a high of 1,008 (last trading at 1,005 as of 12:20 pm est).

In trying to seek out the development of a short term top I’m looking for one of following:

2 day losing streak in either XLF, QQQ, SPY
SPY going 2 days without making a new all time high
SPY making 2 lower lows in a row on a daily basis
SPY going below its prior days low within the first 30 minutes of the day

Since rallying off of the 1,536 low on 4/18/13 none of the above has happened. Simple chart reading here, when trying to determine when something will happen that hasn’t happened recently (a pullback in this case), just look for what has happened. By identifying what has happened during a period of time when a pullback hasn’t occurred, you jointly identify red flags. Any of the above bullet points playing out would be a red flag to me. Not a red flag that signals a 10% drop is coming, but one that signals upside momentum is dissipating and pullback/consolidation phase is in order.

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CAMARO’s Watchlist for 5/22/13

CAMARO24 — Wed, 22 May 2013 00:11:43 +0000

LULU - Talked about this one last night for potential bull flag break out and today it did pop to new 52w highs but failed to close near the HOD which isnt the worst thing to happen just wouldve been better had it closed closer to highs. Anyway it did show signs of strength today and I think tomorrow and rest of the week LULU will be a good trader as many retail names have been going strong as of late. Would look for entries around 81.15 on a dip or a break of 82.20 tomorrow. I like the 80 strike calls.

AMZN - Was on the weekend watchlist and its still in tact as far as technicals go as it trades above its 8ma and puts in higher lows. I wanna see it break 270 tomorrow with volume. There is pretty high OI on the 275 strike calls and I think we might see those go ITM before friday.

BIIB - I think some of these biotech names could get a bounce tomorrow but BIIB in particular has held up very well as most the sector pulled back. Tomorrow I like BIIB for continuation and for a push into 52w highs. Id look for long entries near 229.50 or on a 234 breakout . The spread on the options can be pretty nasty so make sure you place orders at the bids or in between the bid/ask. Fight for your entries. You could pick the best stocks but if you have bad entries it doesnt matter.

Read the rest of my watchlist here

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Stockhaven’s Watchlist For 5/22/13

stockhaven — Tue, 21 May 2013 19:57:21 +0000

GOOG: This small pullback from all time highs is starting to look very similar to the pullback off of the 844 all time high. GOOG posted back to back red days on Monday/Tuesday for the first time in the month of May. Today is the 4th day that it hasn’t closed green and made a new all time high, when compared to the 4th day after 844 high (3/11) you can formulate a very good trade idea based on today’s high of 911.66. An inability to move above 911.66 on Wednesday has me targeting a move to 888-890 which would represent a modest 3.2% pullback from its 820 all time high. Above 911.66 and GOOG will find its way back in the 920′s and setting a new all time high. I am placing a level of significance on today’s high on GOOG more than I usually would. Why? Because if you look back at 3/11, you’ll notice that GOOG wasn’t able to get above that high and it preceded a sustained pullback. Moreover, Tuesday’s lower high and lower low is the 2nd in 3 days. If that’s enough, the volume pattern at the 844 all time high on the daily was g/r/g/r… this volume pattern started out g/r/g/r. There is no other time in between the 844 all time high and the most recent one where GOOG posted a g/r/g/r daily pattern without closing one of those 4 days at a new all time closing high.

Click here for the rest of my watchlist for tomorrow.

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Why Today’s Lower Low Was Not A Short Signal

stockhaven — Tue, 21 May 2013 18:18:41 +0000

This morning was an interesting one as the S&P500 went below its low from Monday resulting in a lower low. The lower low was the first one put in the entire month of May. While the lower low may have served as a short signal to some, it appears to have been a good ‘buy the dip’ moment as the index has since recovered all of its losses and is trading at a fresh all time high. Was I shorting the lower low? No. Why not? Because it was not made within the first 30 minutes of the trading day.

Pretty simple what I’m looking for before I think about shorting this market: a lower low made within the first 30 minutes of the day. If you look at a 60 minute, 20 day chart of SPY, you’ll see that nowhere in the last 20 days has SPY been able to go below its previous days low within the first 30 minutes of the day. That’s a real sign of strength to me and signals that traders are approaching the opening bell with a bullish mindset, regardless of where SPY has been opening.

On the day that SPX does make its short term top, there are going to be some traders who were short from the day before and they can have their moment of glory as “successfully timing the top,” I’m here to tell you not to be one of those traders. Those same traders are the same ones who have been getting smoked on their short bets for the last few months. Your safer bet is to to wait for a signal like the one I outline above and take the short trade then. While you won’t get the definitive top, you’ll be sacrificing entry point for level of certainty and that is always a fair trade off in my view. In the meantime, keep riding the trend higher as 1,700 looks very reachable at this point in time.

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CAMARO’s Watchlist for 5/21/13

CAMARO24 — Tue, 21 May 2013 02:08:02 +0000

BIDU - Really nice breakout into the earnings gap. Looking for follow through tomorrow into that 103 resistance. Would buy a gap down and look for a r/g move in first 15min of the day.

HLF - Caught yet another squeeze today and with heavily shorted stocks getting squeezed for the past few weeks I see no reason by HLF can’t see a move possibly 60 in the next few days. HLF had a bull flag going into the close. It needs to hold above 49 tomorrow morning and break above 49.50 for that bull flag overnight to play out. I would go with 50 strike calls

LULU - bull flag on the daily as the 8ma touched the candles today which can be a great timer to use when waiting for bull flags to get moving again. Needs to break through 81.50 to get 2nd leg. Measured move is to 83.50ish

Full watchlist available here

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Stockhaven’s Watchlist For 5/21/13

stockhaven — Mon, 20 May 2013 23:03:24 +0000

AAPL ($442.93): AAPL is selling off after hours leaving many likely expecting a gap down. I won’t guess on an opening direction either way but what I’ll say is Monday’s action did the stock a lot of good. AAPL broke above the gap down from 5/14 and has a new uptrend in place on the 15 min & 60 min chart. Holding above $436-$437 keeps the uptrend in tact. Above $445 and I expect a test of $450. $450 is the key psychological level, break it on high volume and $470′s is where AAPL is going in the near term. If this recent rally has more upside, there is no reason for AAPL to fall back below $435. Below $435 and I’d expect a test of support between $420-$430.

Click here for the rest of my watchlist for tomorrow.

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Haven’t Seen This Since April 17th

stockhaven — Mon, 20 May 2013 19:05:01 +0000

In the S&P500′s first attempt at 1,600 in mid April the index fell short, topping out at 1,597. In the week that followed, SPX pulled back to a low of 1,536 before reversing on April 19th. Since that reversal took place, SPX has had an unimpeded run to new all time highs. In fact, the index has yet to suffer a 2 day losing streak. While the red ink you’re seeing today (as of 2:51 pm est) doesn’t set up a 2 day losing streak, it could trigger something else that hasn’t happened since before April 19th. That is a single green day not being followed up by another green day, i.e. the inability to put together a 2 day winning streak.

Should the last 2 hours of the day not see the SPX break into the green it would mark the first real pause in the upside momentum since the rally off 1,536 began. The question then would be does such a pause represent a short set up in the market overall? My answer is no for 2 main reasons: the VIX is still above its 52 week low and bullish sentiment decreased last week. Above 1,650 and those reasons remain valid ones to stay long this market. Should 1,650 crack then I’d expect a further move lower towards 1,600.

Of all the headlines out there the one you probably haven’t seen centers on the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 is hanging out just below millennium resistance at 1,000, also an all time high. I like focusing on the Russell here because of all the indexes, it is the only one dealing with a major psychological that everyone can understand. 1,000 is a nice round number, unlike 1,675 on SPX or VIX 13, or Dow 15,400 etc… Watch the Russell closely here. I expect that a break above 1,000 to 1,010 sees this rally accelerate and brings SPX up near 1,700. A stall out underneath 1,000 though could be yet another sign of a rally in need of consolidation.

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Waiting instead of Chasing

HShankle — Mon, 20 May 2013 17:43:39 +0000

Ever had a stock you’re watching rip through a key level intraday…and despite watching it for hours/days/weeks you miss your entry? I know I have…when this happens I suggest waiting instead of chasing. What I see happen most of the time, if a stock indeed breaks a key level…it will squeeze higher really fast, then (most of the time) come back and test that level as support. When price comes back and test that initial key level…that’s a better time to enter than chasing the first break. If the move has legs that support will hold up and the price should trend higher.

I realize this is very basic…but I just thought I would post this because it’s something I notice everyday on key intraday breaks. The key break level usually gets tested as support. So next time you miss a trade and price is leaving you behind…either wait for that retest, or if you don’t get that…move on! There will be another trade set-up around the corner!

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