GOOG At Risk of a Pullback
Looking at Google’s massive run from low 700′s to 900+ this year alone I can’t help but be reminded of AAPL’s big run it made last year. Now obviously the selloff in AAPL involved many different factors with the main one being from a technical perspective AAPL had been uptrending for 4 years leading up the massive run in 2012. This in turn opened the door to a massive 40% selloff from the highs, because it didn’t really have a big long term area where you could chart out big support. Whereas GOOG had established a very long term channel from December of 2009 to August of 2012. This to me supports the longer term bullish view on GOOG.
However, just because I have a long term bullish view on a stock doesn’t mean the stock wont see its pullbacks. GOOG has made 3 large pullbacks since breaking out in Aug of 2012. All larger than 6.5% with the deepest one being about 17% in Nov of 2012 which was also the last time GOOG has seen its 200ma.
In the chart I posted below you will see the reason I am leaning towards the bears camp short term on GOOG. The head and shoulders top that also topped out AAPL in 2012 has presented itself on GOOG. The ‘measured’ move of this H&S pattern is roughly 60pts which would bring us to the 815ish level on GOOG if it plays out like I think it will. The 815 zone represents a lot of significance because its where the 200ma is (or would be by the time it gets there) and also is where the 38% Fib retracement is using Nov. 16th’s low and it’s all time high. All this of course meaning I believe that is where bulls would likely step back in.
So there are my thoughts on why GOOG is looking like it could be at risk of a pullback here in the coming weeks and possibly starting tomorrow and just to be clear I don’t believe GOOG will see a huge selloff like AAPL did this year. I just think this another pullback off highs.
GOOG - Looking for a breakdown tomorrow on GOOG . I like todays heavy looking candle as it pretty much has been lagging for the last 4 days or so. If you follow me on twitter you know Ive been talking about the bigger picture on GOOG and how it has a H&S top that could result in a move down towards 815 within the next few weeks. You can see my detailed chart here –http://i.imgur.com/hhaRusp.png . Key support zone to break is the 860-857 zone
GLD - Will be my main focus tomorrow. Today’s intraday action and volume reminded me alot of last thursday where GLD just kinda sat sideways with no volume and then towards the EOD it begin to make a move to the upside. Same action repeated today as GLD closed at the highs in a nice bull flag on the 5min. Watch tomorrow above 135.60 for continuation higher. GLD trades like a charm if you use shorter term charts like a 2 or 3min chart. It sets up lots of nice flags and wedges and trades pretty close to textbook. This will be my main focus tomorrow for volatility. Bullish on GLD this week for 138 target
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