Initial jobless claims are another term for unemployment benefits. If you are unemployed “due to no fault of your own,” you can file to receive unemployment benefits. The initial jobless claims report tracks how many people have filed for unemployment benefits in the previous week. After seeing this report come in above 400,000 for much of the last few years, the last four weeks have seen much improved numbers.
As a matter of fact, there hasn’t been one initial jobless claims report so far in 2012 that has reported claims above 400,000. Not coincidentally, the decrease in initial jobless claims throughout January came ahead of a much better than expected unemployment report. Skeptics though are crediting the holiday shopping season for the “improvement” in the unemployment situation.
The argument is that companies hire part time workers during the holiday shopping season to handle the expected increase in business. Some pundits claim that this is the reason for the decrease in weekly jobless claims and that the trend is not sustainable. Well, a full month into the new year we think this argument is about to be tested. The first report for February due out today should give everyone a good idea if the unemployment situation is really improving or just getting an unauthenticated boost.
The market is expecting initial claims to come in at 370,000. A better than expected report could be the catalyst that propels the S&P500 above 1,350 Thursday. Meanwhile, a miss could be the excuse the shorts need to test the lows of the last few days. Here is a look at the last 5 weeks worth of reports:
In the week ending January 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 367,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 379,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,750, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 377,750.
In the week ending January 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 377,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 356,000. The 4-week moving average was 377,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 380,000.
In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 352,000, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 402,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 382,500.
In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 399,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 381,750, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 374,000.
In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 373,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 376,500.
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