Tough market right here from a swing perspective, hard to get long because the market has been getting slammed, but hard to get short because we are so far extended to the downside. One thing I noticed is that lately we have sold off in the U.S. session and rallied in the Asia session, before rolling back over. Today we sold off hard into close with $TICK readings in the negative 1400's consistently, but the strange thing is the VIX is still under 18. maybe the market is overextended? or maybe the VIX has more room to run? Your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the bigger picture, typically when stocks fall hard, the bond markets explode, while bonds were up today they didn't really push higher, so an interesting day to say the least... SPX options have a lot of open interest on the 1350 and 1375 strike and with this friday being a monthly expiration I'm looking at those two levels as the most likely pin for Friday. I think the best way to go is to sell premium if we get a gap down with a vertical put spread on SPY. or fade a gap up. Here are a few plays I'm watching to setup.
UNG - looking to swing this. Plenty more upside. Wanted a fill today at 2.00 for December 20 calls but didn't get it so didn't chase. Very strong today and I questioned getting more aggressive but inventory reports tomorrow so we should see some volatility so leaving the bid in at 2.00. Order is still in and if we get a gap down, I think this will be a great entry. 200 day EMA is right at market prices on the daily chart and if you check the chart it hasn't seen its 200 day EMA for over 10 years for more than a day until a week or so ago. I think we may finally get a push through it.
GLD - Another swing into december. I think we've found a short term top with a good risk/reward here. stop at 168.60ish right above the most previous high.. Also, there is a confluence of resistance with the fibonacci extensions in the 170s I think a really good trade would be buying a debit spread. Buy the december 172 puts and sell the december 161 puts to collect some premium. An alternate trade would be to buy the 170 puts. ABX and ANV are some Gold stocks that are very tradable right now.. Both had horrible technical breakdowns today
EL - bought puts on this one at the open and held most of the day today. Looks like it's going to fill the gap. Just one to watch though, not my favorite because the best entry was a couple days ago
FOSL - Another one I played puts on today. Similar to EL. Gap fill candidate. Downtrend still in tact.
LNKD - Gapped to 115ish from 106ish on good earnings on november 2nd. Gave up all of it's gains that day which is very bearish. since then it has fallen below 100 and has paid shorts very well. $100 level is key.
BIDU - hard to get long or short here for a swing but will make a great day trade tomorrow. Watching for any spikes to short on weakness
AAPL - I like the idea of fading a gap up. Short biased tomorrow until proven bullish.
Like I said. Hard to open too many swing positions right now on stocks that are highly correlated with the markets. Right now the way to go is selling premium or day trading.. But UNG and GLD are my favorite plays right now.