In the preps we do, we usually use certain terms with abbreviations as it is both a habit and a much quicker fashion to get stuff down. So for the readers, here are some terms to be familiar with:
- mvp = minute volume pace
- MH/ML = minute high/minute low
- w/i = within
- o/u = over/under
- sways = sideways
- hod/lod = high of day/low of day
- a/b = above below
- b-b = back to back
- o.i. = open interest
- p/b(’s) = pullback(s)
Kevin’s gut feeling: AAPL gonna close 425-435 but GOOG has a legit shot at 810-815 gt if 818’s show up early… otherwise looking for 820-830 close
GOOG:
kevin’s trade approach on GOOG: based on o.i. for opex friday GOOG will have a hard time going > 830… on the downside though 810 is in play if it prints some 818’s with 820 rejects w/i 15-25 min of open… bull/bear trigger on 3 min is ability to close > 1.89 above 1st 3 min close or close $1 below it… would need sup/res @ open to first 3ML/H either way.. net approach is a short on 822-823 rejects @ open or 820 b/d with 810-815 tgt or 828 long tgt on an 820 hold, 822-823 stabilization
W2W4:
- a close below 831.50 as that would signal the first red close on a weekly basis in 8 weeks (1/14/13)
- inability to close > first 15 minute close on a 15 minute basis
- a move > $1.89 above first 3 minute close (bullish) as on 3/13/13 it wasnt able to do that.
- ability to close $1 < first 3 minute close on a 3 minute candle (bearish) as it did that today (3/14/13).
L2W4:
- a move > 824.87 – 825 to signal a neutral bias.
- a move < 818.18 to signal bearish move.
AAPL:
W2W4:
- o/u 450k-500k 3mvp @ open – 9:42
- price action $1 a/b initial 3MH/L
- three 3 min candles w/i $1.05 of each other to signal hod/lod (intraday highs/lows also)
- >200k-250k 3mvp post 10:00 to signal volatility… <100k-150k 3mvp to signal sways
- inability to move > $2.84 above first 15 minute close to signal hod in place.
- inability to move > $1.35 below first 15 minute close to signal lod in place.
- inability to move > $1.81 above open price by 10:06 signals hod.
L2W4:
- either a breakout above 435, or a breakout below 425. Above 435 targets 440, below 425 targets 420.
- watch 430.45-430 b/c if it holds that it is showing good strength as far as being able to hold onto the gap from 3/13-3/14
- the MP (Midpoint) for the week is 432.07, this is a good level to watch b/c if AAPL is able to hold > that level for most of the day it is showing a liking to test 435 again. While if it stays < 432.07 for most of the day…it is likely to test 430.45
bullish: ability to close b-b 3 min candles > $1 above opening price… hod’s by 9:39… ability to break initial 3MH by .94 in one 3 min candle… needs to move > 2.84 above initial 15 min close to give stronger signal vs Thursday… holding the low from the gap up on down to 430 is key if bulls want to start getting some points at this price… > 435 by 9:50 & 438-440 is in play but o.i. suggests strong res @ 440… 15 min p/b’s on < 600k are constructive
bearish: need lod flushes that > .76 below previous lod (.90 preferred)… need lod extension by 9:39 w/inability to reclaim initial 3ML… need 2.25 downside range to get super bearish.. also super bearish is ability to go below 1st ML by > 1.23 by 9:36.. net bearish on 433-435 rejects but close < 430 required to set up expected downside bias going into next week… < 429.65 @ 9:40 and & 425 test in play.. < 425 @ 10:00 and 420 in play… good short vs 438-440 with 435 target for daily close if you get 440 failures
neutral: no nhod or lod between 10:10-10:30
Gap up: needs > $1.81 above open by 9:45 to show ability to make nhod’s. Inability to do that signals a sdways day unless AAPL sees a reversal w/3MVP > 200K and a move > 1.68 – 2.00 below open price by 9:45 which could signal a move lower to 430 – 430.45. below that signals a move lower on the day that would need to see flushes > .76 – .80 on breaks below lod’s to signal a target of 425.
Gap down:on gap down an inability to advance > 1.20 above today’s close (432.50) signals a sdway’s day unless AAPL moves > $1.68 below open price by 9.39… to signal a move lower w/nlod’s that would need to have extensions > .76 – .80 to show a sign of more downside.a break below 430.45 – 430 signal with bounces that are between 1.50 – 1.70 and again extensions > .76 – .80 below nlod’s signals a target to 425, below 425 and it targets 420.
terms to be familiar with:
- mvp = minute volume pace
- MH/ML = minute high/minute low
- w/i = within
- o/u = over/under
- sways = sideways
- hod/lod = high of day/low of day
- a/b = above below
- b-b = back to back
- o.i. = open interest
- p/b(’s) = pullback(s)
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